The Germans still call it the ‘Grand Coalition’. And yet the government formed by the CDU/CSU and SPD commands a mere 328 of 630 seats in the Bundestag. The era in which the former ‘people’s parties’ dominated the Federal Republic is drawing to a close alongside the passing of the Baby Boomer generation. Only among older citizens do the governing parties still win substantial vote shares. The AfD – which the current Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz had pledged to ‘halve’ – stands at 27 per cent in the polls. The chancellor’s own parties, the CDU and CSU, together reach a mere 25 per cent.
The term ‘Grand Coalition’ carries an air of nostalgia. Long gone are the days when the Christian and Social Democrats together held two-thirds of the parliamentary seats. That was the case during Angela Merkel’s first chancellorship (2005 to 2009). Grand coalitions have historically signified the capacity to push through sweeping, constitution-amending measures, owing to their commanding majority. Paradoxically, they were also always regarded as coalitions of ‘small steps’, compelled as the two major parties were to seek compromise. The grand parties have shrunk, but the shuffle steps remain.
The German public continues to indulge in memories of the old Bonn Republic, which has long since declined into a Berlin rump state. ‘Grand Coalition’ – an anachronism from which it draws comfort. This applies not only to the many citizens who still believe they can keep a quarter of the electorate permanently outside government – whether through ‘national coalitions’ serving as an anti-AfD bloc, or even by banning what is currently the largest opposition party. Today’s German politics cannot be explained without the AfD. In a country where what must not be cannot be, they carry on as though it weren’t. When future historians come to answer the question of what truly drove the AfD’s success between 2013 and 2026, the answer will be: the policies of the federal government.
The AfD Question That Must Not Be Asked
In this respect, the record of Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz – who has now governed for a year – must be assessed in the same light. He has managed not only to disappoint every hope placed in him, but to fall short even of the modest expectations that had been set. Non-working wives who were formerly covered by family health insurance will henceforth be required to contribute themselves – an annual additional burden running into four figures for many families. The reduction in advance child maintenance payments hits single parents particularly hard.
Despite the foreseeable increase in financial pressures – a rise in VAT is also under discussion – tax revenues in Germany are collapsing. The SPD coalition partner is consequently demanding further levies, such as a ‘wealth tax’. The pledge made at the coalition’s outset to ease the burden on low and middle incomes is, according to Merz, apparently no longer deliverable. He had also promised to abolish the solidarity surcharge – a levy dating from the years following reunification, introduced to help the weak, newly reintegrated East onto its feet.
Pensions alone are set to rise on 1st June 2026 – for reasons of electoral calculation. The same applies to the Bürgergeld (citizens’ allowance), a social reform that, since the days of the traffic-light coalition, has torn one of the deepest holes in the German budget, yet remains politically untouchable. In short: those who work in Germany and have a family find themselves at the very bottom of the federal government’s list of priorities.
A Chancellor Below Expectations
Much is currently being written about the approval ratings of US President Donald Trump, given the still-ongoing war with Iran. Merz, by contrast, has managed to surpass even his colourless and uncharismatic predecessor Olaf Scholz in the matter of unpopularity. Scholz, who delivered his remarks in a register hovering somewhere between nursery school teacher and vendor of sleeping pills, introduced a Heating Act mandating the costly conversion of domestic heating systems – from oil and gas boilers to heat pumps, at a cost running into thousands of euros – passed an ultra-liberal Self-Determination Act permitting biological males to enter women’s saunas, and pushed through the phase-out of nuclear energy in the midst of an energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine.
A study by the American polling institute Morning Consult reveals that Merz holds the second-lowest approval rating among leaders across 24 democratic countries. A mere 20 per cent of those surveyed are satisfied with his performance. Only France’s head of state fares worse, at 17 per cent. Rather than reform and economic recovery, a pall of blight hangs over the German Republic. Merz, the former BlackRock representative in Germany, responded to the state of domestic and international affairs with a remarkably plaintive declaration: what he was being required to endure, no chancellor before him had ever had to endure. Apparently, Merz regards himself as confronting greater ruins than Federal Chancellor Konrad Adenauer faced in the aftermath of the Second World War and National Socialist rule.
And yet there is a kernel of truth in this admission of failure: the problems that have reduced Germany from the locomotive of Europe to a wheezing handcar with squeaking wheels are homegrown and inherited. The blame does not lie principally with the predecessor coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the Liberals. It lies with the sixteen years of CDU leader Angela Merkel. It is to her that the shifts in migration and energy policy can be traced – policies that continue to shape Germany economically, socially and politically to this day, and which equally account for the rise of the AfD. It was Merkel, too, who acted as patron to climate policy and the social and party-political transformation. It was the CDU that set the points for the Germany of today.
The Sphinx in the Background
Germany, accordingly, still inhabits the Merkel Republic. A break with her politics would be a liberating blow for Merz. Yet none of the parties in the Bundestag – with the exception of the AfD, which derives its very slogan as an ‘alternative’ from the ‘without alternative’ doctrine that Merkel once postulated regarding her Euro policy – is prepared to saw at Merkel’s monument. She remains the sphinx in the background of German politics. The CDU and SPD will continue to haemorrhage votes – seeking to replenish their losses in the battle against the AfD with the support of the Greens and perhaps also the Left Party. The CDU’s erosion continues, given that it has imposed upon itself a ban on any cooperation with the AfD. To do otherwise would be to betray Merkel’s legacy. Yet it is from Merkel’s legacy that the AfD, too, draws its sustenance.
And the German citizen? Given the circumstances, one might expect discontent. But the Germans are a phlegmatic people, one that – unlike its French neighbours – must be carried to a revolution, and that – unlike the Italians – has little inclination to adapt flexibly to change. Its faith rests in the expectation that the state will remedy what the state itself has bungled. Whilst Merz embarrasses himself at home and abroad, the German soul was stirred by the plight of a humpback whale that had become stranded. The story that dominated the media came to an end with the observation that German helpers had dragged the stricken creature back out to sea – where it apparently drowned from exhaustion. In at least one respect, the Germans have yet to lose their touch.
